How have local levels of fertility changed since 2001?

The Office for National Statistics has released an interactive mapping tool, with users able to analyse trends in total fertility rates (TFRs) for local authorities in England and Wales from 2001 onwards. The tool shows how fertility rates have changed over time and enables comparisons between local authorities and with the overall national picture.



Mid-2013 Population Estimates

mid-2013-popest-cover-pgThis release reports the mid-2013 estimates for Bradford in the context of the sub-region and historical mid-year estimates. Age structure and its distribution is explored.

Key findings

  • The rounded mid-2013 estimate for Bradford is 526,400 persons, with a median age of 35.2 years.
  • The population increased by 1,750 on the previous year’s estimate, with natural change (births – deaths) at +3,600, net internal migration -3,550 and net international migration +1,700 persons.
  • Natural change is a major driver to population growth, with international net in-migration historically significant and internal net out-migration substantial.
  • The dynamics of population change in Bradford appear to be operating differently compared to our sub-regional neighbours.
  • Bradford has a young age profile compared to our neighbours, with 1 in 4 (23.5%) of the total under 16 years.
  • The proportion aged 20 to 42 match the distribution for England, with the bulk proportionally less aged over 42 years.

To open this bulletin please click here.

Bradford’s population projected to grow to 598,000 persons by 2037

The primary purpose of the sub-national projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. The latest 2012-based projections released by the ONS on 29 May show Bradford is projected to be home to 598,000 people by 2037. This is a 14.0% increase or 73,400 people in the 25 year period, lower than the equivalent national increase of 16.2%.

How a population is projected to change locally depends on a number of factors that can interact and produce very different growth rates to England as a whole. The size and age structure of the population at mid-2012 is a big indicator of the future population.


Bradford’s population as a whole is projected to be more heavily influenced by natural change (births – deaths) into the future. In later years of the projection, negative net migration plays a larger role in moderating growth.

Local planning needs such as change in service provision often relate to particular age groups and therefore it is important to understand projected changes to the age structure when planning for the future.

ONS has produced an on-line interactive tool for local comparisons of age/sex population projections-interactive-tool-projons for each single year.

Click here to download the data or for more information.



Non-UK Born Population of England and Wales Quadrupled Between 1951 and 2011

obs-blog-ons-logoThe latest Census analysis looked at changing migration patterns over 60 years.

Migration is an important driver of population change, currently accounting for around half of the population growth in England and Wales; with natural change (births and deaths) accounts for the remaining population change. Historic census data has been used to show the growth in the non-UK born population between 1951 and 2011.

This infographic shows the top ten non-UK countries of birth in each census year since 1951.

In summary

  • Non-UK born population quadrupled between 1951 and 2011
  • Non-UK born population has become more diverse since 1951
  • Numbers of Irish-born residents in England and Wales decreased
  • Those born in India were the largest group in 2011 at 694,000
  • 10 fold increase in Polish migrants over ten years from 2001-2011

To open the analysis in full please click here.

Population Estimates for Bradford – Mid-2012

obs-blog-ons-2The mid-year estimates refer to the population on 30 June of the reference year and are published annually. They are the official set of population estimates for the UK and its constituent countries, the regions of England and Wales and local authorities.

Mid-year population estimates relate to the usually resident population.

The mid-2012 population for Bradford is estimated at 524,619.

For further information on this release click here.